Vermont Towns - Population, Crime Index and Police Coverage Comparison

Main Street in Randolph during the 1960's

Vermont Towns - Population, Crime Index and Police Coverage Comparison

The following is a comparison of various Vermont towns including population, crime index and police coverage per 1,000 residents. The data shows numerous small and medium size towns rely on either the State Police or Sheriff's office for police coverage.

Randolph had a total of 6 full time officers in 2016/2017, with a crime index of 35.7 for a village population of 2,012 residents. This translates to a coverage ratio of 2.85 officers per 1,000 residents, rather high when compared to towns of similar size and crime index.

The proposed FY 2025 budget to cover the entire Town of Randolph projects a total of 8 full time officers with 4,774 residents, for a ratio of 1.68 officers per resident, more in line with neighboring towns police coverage.

Crime Statistics

Statistics on crime in Randolph show a gradual decline in crime overall since 2006. Specifically, research on city-data.com shows a crime index of 35.4 for 2017, the most recent year shown (the last year Randolph had a police department). This compares to a crime index of 66.2 for 2006, with an average crime index between 2006 and 2017 of 56.6 for the 11 year period. The local data compares to an average crime index of 270.6 for the entire United States. 

Within Vermont, comparable cities and towns include Castleton with a population of 4,458 and a crime index of 46.8, Morristown with a population of 5,434 and a crime index of 116.6, Hinesburg with a population of 4,698 and a crime index of 72.1, while Northfield has a population of 5,918 with a crime index of 100.6. Figures for larger cities include Montpelier with a population of 8,074 and a crime index of 209.4, and St. Johnsbury has a population of 7,364 and a crime index of 120.1, while smaller villages such as Bethel have no published crime index.

I have included a sample of the data below, the entire spreadsheet is included below as Exhibit A - Vermont Cities & Towns, Population, Crime Index and Police Coverage.

Town	2020 Pop	2019 Crime Index	# Officers	Officers/1,000 Pop.
Castleton	4,458	46.80	5	1.21
Hinesburg	4,698	222.10	4	0.85
Hardwick	2,920	119.60	5+	1.71
Morristown	5,434	116.60	11	2.02
Northfield	5,918	81.60	7+	1.17
Montpelier	8,074	174.00	17	2.30
Randolph Village	2,102	35.4 (2017)	6	2.85
Randolph Town	4,774		8	1.68
Springfield	9,063	190.40	13	1.46
St. Johnsbury	7,434	180.60	10	1.40
2019 Vermont State Average				2.19

Based on the crime index statistics, criminal activity in Randolph is relatively low when compared to other cities and towns in the state. Northfield has a townwide population roughly 24% larger than Randolph, yet has a crime index nearly double that of Randolph. Northfield also employs a total of 7 police officers, nearly double the number proposed for Randolph. That would seem to correlate with the crime index and expected criminal activity. (Source: https://www.city-data.com)

Not including Randolph, there are at least 27 Vermont towns with populations between 2,000 to over 5,000 residents that have no local police department (see Exhibit A). These include Fairfax, Georgia, Derby, East Montpelier, and Williamstown.

Proposed Randolph Police Budget Compared to Vermont Towns

The following is a comparison of the Randolph Police Department proposed budgets for FY 2025, including two options - the village district does not expand, or the district expands to cover the entire town. I have included Vermont towns with similar size populations and which also have their own police department i.e. not using the sheriff or state police for coverage. The comparisons include the proposed budget for the existing Village Police District with no expansion, and the proposed budget for expanding the district to cover the entire Town of Randolph.

The comparisons also include the cost per officer, cost per square mile of coverage, and the cost per reported incident for 2022. The average cost per officer, for example, ranges from a low of $122,064 in Hardwick to a high of $199,783 in Bristol. The estimated cost per officer in Randolph is $171,250 if the village district remains "as is" to $167,500 if the district expands to cover the entire Town of Randolph. The historical cost per officer in Randolph was roughly $125,000 for the fiscal years 2014 to 2017, the last year of department activity prior to the contract with the Orange County Sheriff's Office.

Based on the comparison, it appears the projected cost to Randolph is similar to the cost experienced by towns of similar size, however, it is considerably more than the town has spent per officer in the past. This is due to inflation - both general inflation, and more significantly, inflation in the salary and related costs of police officer employment. The department is currently operating with fewer officers than in past years, yet they are handling more calls for service. These costs are projected to rise in the near future as all police departments are dealing with a severe staffing shortage of qualified, trained personnel. Due to economies of scale, the smaller the department, the more it costs per officer, and the harder it is to maintain existing staff i.e. prevent competing offers from neighboring towns causing officers to seek employment elsewhere.

Randolph Police Department - Historical Cost and Staffing Analysis

Please note this post reflects data thru 11/2023. Will be updated later with year end data.

The following is a comparison of the Randolph Village Police Department annual cost, reported incidents, requests for service, full and part time officers, administrative and dispatch personnel, and finally the annual cost adjusted for inflation to 2023 dollars, divided by # of officers, and by # of reported incidents per year.

The # of reported incidents for 2023 is based on the incident reports, traffic reports and warnings data recorded for June - November 2023 by the Randolph Police Department. Please see a detailed breakdown of incidents by month on a separate blog post here:

It is difficult to compare the reported incidents to past years because the past years do not break down the incidents by type so all we have for now is the total incidents. The total 1,924 reported incidents for the six month period of June - November 2023 has been adjusted to exclude directed patrols, fingerprints, training and administrative time spent by officers, to get a more accurate number of incidents to compare to prior years. Also, we do not have data on 2023 requests to compare to past years, we only have reported incidents.

The reported incidents for 2023 seem to reflect a busy department compared to past years. For example, from 2010 to 2016 the incidents averaged roughly 1,200 per year, compared to a projected 2023 total of 1,924 incidents. This is an approximate 60% increase in the total 2023 incidents to which officers are responding, yet they are working with 2 fewer officers than in the past (6 to 4 full time). No wonder they are feeling overworked, they are busy!

Randolph is spending an average of $131,026 per officer for 2023, compared to an average cost per officer of $125,546 for the 4 years 2014 to 2017 (adjusted for inflation). However, the projected FY 2025 police department budget for the existing Village Police District, assuming no expansion of the district boundaries, is a total of $856,248, or $171,250 per full-time officer. This means the cost per officer has increased from roughly $125,546 to a projected $171,250, an increase of 63% in less than 10 years. This is an enormous increase which is likely unsustainable in the long term.

Randolph Police Department - Monthly Incident Report Breakdown

The following is a summary of the Randolph Police Department Incident Reports, and Ticket Warnings Issued Reports, for the months of June - October 2023.

I have separated the incidents into categories to get a more accurate breakdown of the actual calls for service and the location of the calls. The town/village incidents do not include the fingerprint incidents as these are all processed at the department office but serve the entire population. In addition, these are not incidents that require law enforcement and could be processed elsewhere if the department did not exist.

I have also separated incidents noted for training, administration, directed patrol and records requests. While this incidents are important and necessary in conducting the work of the department, they are not calls from the public requiring the attention of law enforcement.

What remains are the incidents actually involving law enforcement and the public in one form or another - from traffic stops, welfare checks or public speaking to felony arrests and domestic violence response. This data clearly shows that each month roughly 30%+ of the incidents are in locations outside of the village police district. In September 2023, 55% of the ticket warnings issued were in locations outside of the village district, while in October 2023 47% of the warnings were issued outside of the village district.

This data may not be perfect, but it illustrates to me a need for law enforcement in the Town of Randolph, and not just in the village.